Some tenuously connected thoughts about political risk and financial markets in recent South African newsflow: For whom the bell tolls The marginal victory of Cyril Ramaphosa at the ANC conference at Nasrec in December 2017 immediately raised the matter of ‘key person risk’ inherent in having one portly fellow as the absolute lynchpin of theContinue reading “Key person risk, Molefe’s attack on Ramaphosa and other matters”
Category Archives: Democracy
Most recent polling data and some comments
This from my 22nd of April 2014 news update: The Sunday Times 20/04/2014 released a second “fully representative” survey conducted by Ipsos using a sample of 2219 registered voters. Here are the results as published in the Sunday Times tracked against both the 2009 election and the earlier Sunday Times commissioned poll of March 11,Continue reading “Most recent polling data and some comments”
Polling, polling, polling down the river
It’s the 1st of April and I have already seen that Helen Zille has accepted an ‘elecnomination‘ to spend two weeks living in Khayelitsha, surviving on the minimum wage and using a bucket toilet. Good for her, I say. In other news the DA has announced that the Western Cape government it is going to upgrade Zille’s private residenceContinue reading “Polling, polling, polling down the river”
‘Why do people still vote for the ANC?’ asked the clever child, exasperatedly
This is a quick aside before getting onto the more riveting topics of the May 7 elections, service delivery protests (and their search for a Gene Sharp handbook as well as the predictions of the Davies J-curve), the platinum strike, Julius Malema’s sequestration hearing in the North Gauteng High Court this morning (and the pressing matter of whetherContinue reading “‘Why do people still vote for the ANC?’ asked the clever child, exasperatedly”
Elections 2014, investment threats, DRC and crime intelligence chaos
Important defection from the ANC to the EFF, and the DA launches robust campaign in Soweto – but it is probably not yet enough to scare the ANC Appropriate concern grows at the Promotion of Investment and Protection Bill Stunning victory in eastern DRC is becoming a feather in Zuma’s cap … … while theContinue reading “Elections 2014, investment threats, DRC and crime intelligence chaos”
ANC savaged by a duck – and other matters of national importance
Some of my recent news coverage and commentary: E-tolling and the DA’s cruel billboards Last week Jacob Zuma signed into law the Transport Laws and Related Matters Amendment Bill – meaning the unpopular e-tolling can begin on certain Gauteng highways. I was impressed that the President did the necessary – despite the fact that thisContinue reading “ANC savaged by a duck – and other matters of national importance”
Ten days that shook my world
Preface I wrote what follows in July 1990 immediately after returning from a two week trip to Moscow. I was part of a group with the now sadly departed Institute for a Democratic Alternative for South Africa (Idasa). The original was published in Democracy In Action, the institute’s monthly newsletter. I had looked for a copy forContinue reading “Ten days that shook my world”
Fluff
Enthusiasm is a quality I value. It’s especially endearing in children and dogs. But in human adults beyond the blush of youth it is nothing short of heroic. However, when enthusiasm is both sentimental and irrational it is decidedly less attractive. Which brings me to Mamphela Ramphele, Cyril Ramaphosa and the National Development Plan –Continue reading “Fluff”
Are we in the predator’s labyrinth?
Nedbank chairman Reuel Khoza provides the lead headline in today’s Business Day as “warning of a rogue state future for SA”. So imagine if you could, for a moment, that you are playing a sports game. As in a dream, you suddenly realise you don’t know the rules; you don’t know how to score, who’sContinue reading “Are we in the predator’s labyrinth?”
Is any one version of a post-Mangaung ANC better than another?
First off, let me admit, that I have no choice but to believe that the answer to the question in the title is: yes. It’s an article of faith. Who can live in a world where the bullies and thugs, the greedy and manipulative, the powerful and the arrogant have won so decisively that it isContinue reading “Is any one version of a post-Mangaung ANC better than another?”
Greeting – and a few thoughts of home – from Belgrade
I am in Serbia on a social visit and I thought I would record here some of my initial observations about stuff we might learn from this country about some aspects of SA politics and culture. Cultural Betrayal Firstly, I am in Belgrade – a city of 1.6 million people built on the confluence ofContinue reading “Greeting – and a few thoughts of home – from Belgrade”
Therefore send not to know for whom the bell tolls – it tolls for free
I think the e-tolling saga is important precisely because my headline bastardising the denouement of John Donne’s famous poem is, in truth, wrong. Gauteng’s road upgrade does not come for free. The R20bn was borrowed by Sanral and lent by people and institutions (which) who assessed the risk attached to repayment on the basis that e-tolling wasContinue reading “Therefore send not to know for whom the bell tolls – it tolls for free”
Game of Thrones in the ANC
A good friend of mine in New York* recently put me on to “A Song of Ice and Fire” – a seemingly endless series of swords and sorcery novels by George R R Martin. This is the crack cocaine of fantasy fiction but it is also a surprisingly brilliant study of politics and power vacuums.Continue reading “Game of Thrones in the ANC”
Neither the best nor worst of all possible worlds
Arrived late last night in New York from London (and Edinburgh and Frankfurt) and the lag means I am only going to want to fall asleep at exactly the time it will be most unsuitable to do so. I have been travelling (for Indian owned Religare Capital Markets, where I have a new berth) withContinue reading “Neither the best nor worst of all possible worlds”
The limits of politics
I think both the DA and the ANC might be on the verge of an evolutionary spurt that will change what they are and thus see them shifting into new ecological niches in our political landscape. I also think that the landscape itself changes much slower than we think or hope. Voluntarism is a termContinue reading “The limits of politics”
Nic Borain 