Blog Archive

As I write the government and labour are clashing in the virtual Labour Appeal Court, in between freeze frames, dropped connections and the acerbic wit of the inimitable Judge Dennis Davis. In essence: Whether or not the government is able to ‘hold the line’ on freezing the public sector wageContinue reading “Public sector wage bill – slugging it out in Labour Appeals Court”

Several posts will be attempts to catch up on relevant news, and argue why I think these are, or are not, important. This is one of those. Corruption Arrests Do the corruption arrests constitute a step change in attempts to unpick the tangled web of ‘normal state and economic activity’Continue reading “Corruption arrests and Land ho!”

Apologies for the inconvenience but this site is undergoing reconstructive surgery – please wear a hat and mask at all times. The regular political commentary that has not been published here for two years will resume when the management finds a WordPress technician who can speak any of South Africa’sContinue reading “Under Construction”

The Minister of Finance, unlikely hero and protector of the public purse, has slipped precipitously in public affections as he apologised for visiting the Guptas while Deputy Minister and his son appeared to be at the centre of a scandal at the PIC, the institution for which the Deputy MinisterContinue reading “Ne ne ne Nene”

The counter revolution is not gonna headline the Sunday Times That Sunday organ is a well established field of play for leaks from factions struggling for power in and around the ANC – and, just as an aside, proved itself most obliging to the whole State Capture initiative by assistingContinue reading “Counterrevolution and the Tiffany Smith & Wesson”

Greetings. I have decided to resume updating this WordPress site. Mostly with commentary based on news coverage about South African politics and investment risk. Occasionally with articles that I think someone following South African politics may find interesting. Land ho Cyril Ramaphosa’s announcement on the land question as president ofContinue reading “As I was saying …”

The last two weeks have been given over to overoptimistic outpourings of happiness. Here is the grumpy note I put out on April Fool’s Day as the aforementioned came out skipping into the park, hope reliably triumphing over experience: The Constitutional Court ruling against Jacob Zuma yesterday is another significant blow toContinue reading “Zexit? Make me …”

You might be surprised at how carefully some people who’ve never set foot on these shores, people who are mostly blindingly clever at maths and informed to a scarily deep level about our politics and history and whose job includes trading our currency and bonds, have asked me that headlineContinue reading “Does the Gordhan correction undo the damage wrought by Nene’s axing?”

For those who were tortured by my somnolently incoherent post last night, here is the follow up. Hopefully a little clearer. The flip-flops around the Minister of Finance leave Jacob Zuma looking weak and vulnerable. There are grounds to begin questioning whether he will see out his full term. TheContinue reading “‘Tis reasonable to hope this might be the season to be (faintly) jolly”

Having been woken by my children to tell me we had a new, new finance minister I blundered out of bed and scribbled this for my paying clients – forgive the blurriness it is essentially the sleeping pill that’s doing most of the world work. There were 7 more errorsContinue reading “Don’t call me stupid, stupid”

I have been completely taken up with a project (now completed) that argued that the black African middle-class was our single biggest asset and the workings of the interests of that class in the world would save our politics and help our economics. Yaay! The basic argument looked at the defectionContinue reading “Numsa, Cosatu, the ANC, the SACP and all of that jazz”

I will get on to the weighty question of whether Jacob Zuma might retire before his term of office is completed momentarily, but first let me mention that I have been busy with what started as an idle rumination about the South African Communist Party. But has turned, inevitably perhaps,Continue reading “Jacob Zuma – will he stay, will he go and does it matter?”

Here are some bits and pieces I highlighted for investors over the last few weeks. Thanks as always to BNP Paribas Cadiz Securities for allowing me to republish these snippets here … it is also a touch more information that most people require, but I post it here for theContinue reading “Lesotho, Guptas, Jacob’s Ladder, Julius huffs and he puffs but he doesn’t blow the House down, Cyril’s hard week down at the commission …. and so much more”

(This is part of a brief note I sent out to clients this morning) Nelson Rolihlahla Dalibunga Mandela,  95, died last night on Thursday December 5 2013. There may be short-swings in some South African financial instruments but it is unlikely that this will be a longer term driver ofContinue reading “Nelson Mandela and the ticker tape”

Herewith some comments on the latest political news. Apologies that I have posted so seldom here of late. I see a New Year’s resolution coming on. I see a New Year’s resolution exiting stage left. Numsa, Cosatu and the SACP … and Jacob Zuma During this past week the National UnionContinue reading “Numsa, Nkandla, the SACP and other matters”

I will make a decision on the caption competition soon, but meanwhile here is my latest news update and summary – the Madonsela story continues to grow and, frankly, should be encouraged to. The Public Protector clashes with Zuma’s security chiefs On Friday state security agencies abandoned their urgent interdictContinue reading “Madonsela, EFF’s red beret shortage, election estimates and more”

Various commentators, politicians and analysts have attempted to characterise Mangaung, to define the moment’s essential nature. Below are two takes I found interesting with some words from me on why I found them thus. After that I include a more general summary of what happened with the voting results forContinue reading “Mangaung – takes, outtakes and takeouts”

Annus horribilis This has undoubtedly been the worst year for South Africa – at too many levels to name – since 1994. There is much I have wanted to say here but couldn’t find the time.  So I am going to rapidly fire off a series of posts, as myContinue reading “A few deep blue thoughts as we rush towards Mangaung – Part 1”

I am not encouraged, in my professional life, to be too colourful in what I write or say. This morning I reviewed the weeklies – as I do before 06h30 every Monday morning – and found myself having to strip more metaphor and vitriol than usual from what I hadContinue reading “The connection between violent ANC contest and the piles of Nkandla treasure”

The previous post was headlined “The ANC’s surprising return to form” and it stayed as the face of this website throughout a week in which we were reminded of the nest of corruption our president emerged from. … oh yes, and a week when the ANC in parliament passed theContinue reading “Going into the dark”

Anyone who reads this blog on a regular basis will have noticed two things. The first is that the number of posts have tailed off. This is largely because my time has been taken up with paid work and the website has slipped down the list of priorities in theContinue reading “The ANC’s surprising return to form”

Doesn’t the Julius Malema saga feel so familiar? Remember how the Jacob Zuma campaign seemed to transform each new obstacle placed in his path into fuel for his political train that eventually steamed triumphant into Polokwane in December 2007? The fact that he was known far and wide as hopelesslyContinue reading “Zuma was to Polokwane what Malema hopes to be to Mangaung”

Those who know me would expect me to profess that I would rather eat broken glass than say anything sentimental and upbeat for the sake of Christmas cheer. They would also know that I often fail: that a sort of “jolly hockey-sticks” optimism can sometimes creep into my disposition, thatContinue reading “Can you hear the drums?”

This is the second of three articles about the New Growth Path (NGP) Framework released last week by the Ministry of Economic Development. One of the architects (I must assume) of the NGP, Neva Makgetla  (an economist long associated with Cosatu and now deputy director general in the Department ofContinue reading “If this is the New Growth Path what’s the Old Growth Path?”

This is the first of three articles that look at the political and policy bloodline of the New Growth Path and the main criticisms that have emerged about the policy in the public domain over the last few days. This first post is a summary – using quotes and paraphrasingContinue reading “New Growth Path Framework bloodline”

Tomorrow morning at the crack of dawn I will begin travelling with my children for a respite after two years of my (it seems somehow personal) Great Recession. We will be moving through some places that are less connected than others, so I will be posting irregularly for some time.Continue reading “The SACP Conference – as I head off”

I do not believe that government, by the pure force of will of the members and the clarity of their thinking, can change all societies or societal processes for the better. In fact, I tend to believe that outside of the basic provision of services and the function of co-ordination,Continue reading “Farewell lessons from Joel – who clearly still believes in government”

The appointment of  Menzi Simelane to head the National Prosecuting Authority is profoundly reminiscent of the National Party’s style of rule in the declining years of Apartheid. Do you remember the Broederbond, and other instruments of Afrikaner Nationalism? Do you remember the stolid manipulation of every conceivable government, parastatal orContinue reading “Do you remember the Broederbond?”