Categories

African National Congress

• They shoot horses, don’t they?May 3, 2022
  I had an extended metaphor for the title about South Africa being not quite ready for the knacker’s yard, despite the apparently universal hysterical consensus, but by the time I got to the dancing yourself to death bit, it all became a bit tenuous.  Anyway, I plan to restart theContinue reading “They shoot horses, don’t they?”
• Mkhize vibes off into the sunsetJune 7, 2021
  It looks increasingly likely that Zweli Mkhize’s tenure as Minister of Health will come to an end sooner rather than later – he dodged a parliamentary inquiry on the morning of the 4th and has given up on giving the statistical briefings on his own Twitter account. It is notContinue reading “Mkhize vibes off into the sunset”
• Cornered RETApril 9, 2021
  This piece was written jointly with my colleague Laurent Balt. So where to now for Ace Magashule, and what future for the RET forces? The state of the RET Unpacking the health of an ANC faction nowadays is tricky business, in that they are generally not factions in the traditionalContinue reading “Cornered RET”

• They shoot horses, don’t they?May 3, 2022
  I had an extended metaphor for the title about South Africa being not quite ready for the knacker’s yard, despite the apparently universal hysterical consensus, but by the time I got to the dancing yourself to death bit, it all became a bit tenuous.  Anyway, I plan to restart theContinue reading “They shoot horses, don’t they?”
• Cornered RETApril 9, 2021
  This piece was written jointly with my colleague Laurent Balt. So where to now for Ace Magashule, and what future for the RET forces? The state of the RET Unpacking the health of an ANC faction nowadays is tricky business, in that they are generally not factions in the traditionalContinue reading “Cornered RET”
• Teatime at Nkandla, AstraZeneca and the mutant strainFebruary 8, 2021
  Tea as theatre I was adamant I wasn’t going to add to the verbiage about the Nkandla tea party. But then City Press led with the headline “THE GREAT TEA PARTY FIGHTBACK” (yes they were shouting) to give voice to the strategist supposedly leading the Zuma and Ace defence leagueContinue reading “Teatime at Nkandla, AstraZeneca and the mutant strain”

Corruption

History

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  Hold fast comrades – the Thatcher-lites are upon usAugust 9, 2014
  I intend, in the near future, to dust off my Marxist theory.* I am going to need a framework through which to express my growing conviction that much of our politics can be understood as a function of the collapse of the alliance of classes that underlay the national democratic revolution – and theContinue reading “Hold fast comrades – the Thatcher-lites are upon us”
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  Nigeria GDP rebasing flutters, HIV infection rates up, Cosatu crumbles, the vibrant SA democracy (yay) and our myopic exceptionalism (boo)April 11, 2014
  (Part of this is from a news update I published for the clients of BNP Paribas Cadiz Securities on Monday – 07/04/2014. Thanks as always to them for allowing me to republish here a few days later. None of opinions expressed here are those of BNP Paribas Cadiz Securities.) Nigeria’s GDP rebasing is normalContinue reading “Nigeria GDP rebasing flutters, HIV infection rates up, Cosatu crumbles, the vibrant SA democracy (yay) and our myopic exceptionalism (boo)”
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  ‘Why do people still vote for the ANC?’ asked the clever child, exasperatedlyFebruary 10, 2014
  This is a quick  aside before getting onto the more riveting topics of the May 7 elections, service delivery protests (and their search for a Gene Sharp handbook as well as the predictions of the Davies J-curve), the platinum strike, Julius Malema’s sequestration hearing in the North Gauteng High Court this morning (andContinue reading “‘Why do people still vote for the ANC?’ asked the clever child, exasperatedly”

• They shoot horses, don’t they?May 3, 2022
  I had an extended metaphor for the title about South Africa being not quite ready for the knacker’s yard, despite the apparently universal hysterical consensus, but by the time I got to the dancing yourself to death bit, it all became a bit tenuous.  Anyway, I plan to restart theContinue reading “They shoot horses, don’t they?”
• Public sector wage bill – slugging it out in Labour Appeals CourtDecember 2, 2020
  As I write the government and labour are clashing in the virtual Labour Appeal Court, in between freeze frames, dropped connections and the acerbic wit of the inimitable Judge Dennis Davis. In essence: Whether or not the government is able to ‘hold the line’ on freezing the public sector wageContinue reading “Public sector wage bill – slugging it out in Labour Appeals Court”
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  That’s nothing! I remember ….October 29, 2015
  There were several times last week when I felt admiration for the protesting students, including those who crashed through the gates of parliament and, quite bravely in many cases, stood up to the SAPS’s counter attack, stun grenades and all. I admit to some brief, irresponsible, trickster elation – Loki let loose upon the worldContinue reading “That’s nothing! I remember ….”

Labour Market

Macro-economics

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  Does the Gordhan correction undo the damage wrought by Nene’s axing?December 21, 2015
  You might be surprised at how carefully some people who’ve never set foot on these shores, people who are mostly blindingly clever at maths and informed to a scarily deep level about our politics and history and whose job includes trading our currency and bonds, have asked me that headlineContinue reading “Does the Gordhan correction undo the damage wrought by Nene’s axing?”
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  ‘Tis reasonable to hope this might be the season to be (faintly) jollyDecember 14, 2015
  For those who were tortured by my somnolently incoherent post last night, here is the follow up. Hopefully a little clearer. The flip-flops around the Minister of Finance leave Jacob Zuma looking weak and vulnerable. There are grounds to begin questioning whether he will see out his full term. TheContinue reading “‘Tis reasonable to hope this might be the season to be (faintly) jolly”
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  Overreach – how generals, tyrants and puffed up fools implodeDecember 9, 2015
  Business Day  this morning published an article suggesting that Nhlanhla Nene was on the verge of being shuffled out of his Minister of Finance position to some face-saving backwater. I wrote early last week in a client note: “It is widely held that the National Treasury and Minister Nhlanhla Nene haveContinue reading “Overreach – how generals, tyrants and puffed up fools implode”