The alliance is dead, Zuma’s dignity saved and SA dams on life support – and how I think I know what I think I know

I wanted to discuss something called heuristics, which refers to the way we make decisions or reach an understanding about something, especially when the matter under consideration is complicated. The word (heuristics) can mean the short cuts we take but the general field also deals with the many errors of thinking to which such short cuts canContinue reading “The alliance is dead, Zuma’s dignity saved and SA dams on life support – and how I think I know what I think I know”

Julius Malema the (still) coming man

This is obviously a season of reflection for me. Here is (another) post from the past, this one from November 4 2009. For a long time Julius Malema is the Coming Man was the most viewed and most commented upon article here.  (Later this post about Chris Hani became ‘most viewed’ if not most commented upon.) Remember, whenContinue reading “Julius Malema the (still) coming man”

Some thoughts on the ANC, the DA and the EFF

A couple of asides as I tinker away at a framework for assessing Sunday’s Cabinet announcement. The media noise surrounding Helen Zille’s putative attitude towards Lindiwe Mazibuko is interesting, but largely because it is so loud. In the last hour I have been asked twice (by journalists) for an opinion on Mmusi Maimane‘s acceptance of nomination to theContinue reading “Some thoughts on the ANC, the DA and the EFF”

Most recent polling data and some comments

This from my 22nd of April 2014 news update: The Sunday Times 20/04/2014  released a second “fully representative” survey conducted by Ipsos using a sample of 2219 registered voters. Here are the results as published in the Sunday Times tracked against both the 2009 election and the earlier Sunday Times commissioned poll of March 11,Continue reading “Most recent polling data and some comments”

Glacial progress in employment equity and Ronnie gets hilarious

(Note: please read Jonny Steinberg’s comments on my miscasting of the implications of the recent HSRC’s South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey, 2012. Jonny argues that I have taken “a story of resounding success and twisted it into a tale of alarm”. Jonny Steinberg is correct on all counts and I hope to redress myContinue reading “Glacial progress in employment equity and Ronnie gets hilarious”

Polling, polling, polling down the river

It’s the 1st of April and I have already seen that Helen Zille has accepted an ‘elecnomination‘  to spend two weeks living in Khayelitsha, surviving on the minimum wage and using a bucket toilet. Good for her, I say. In other news the DA has announced that the Western Cape government it is going to upgrade Zille’s private residenceContinue reading “Polling, polling, polling down the river”

The very fat goose, the socialists* party, all Zuma’s bets are on the NDP, mining companies show some fang and much much more

I am on my way to London to speak to the funds that buy and sell South Africa’s corporate and government bonds i.e. the market that sets the price at which the world is prepared to lend us money. Daily I become more convinced that the South African political economy is, like quick clay “so unstableContinue reading “The very fat goose, the socialists* party, all Zuma’s bets are on the NDP, mining companies show some fang and much much more”

EFF off and DA

“How seriously to take the EFF is becoming the question of the year for a view on South African political risk” As I listened to Pravin Gordhan’s budget speech I thought I would share with you an extract of my news commentary from Monday morning. But I forgot to hit ‘publish’ as I was beingContinue reading “EFF off and DA”

‘Why do people still vote for the ANC?’ asked the clever child, exasperatedly

This is a quick  aside before getting onto the more riveting topics of the May 7 elections, service delivery protests (and their search for a Gene Sharp handbook as well as the predictions of the Davies J-curve), the platinum strike, Julius Malema’s sequestration hearing in the North Gauteng High Court this morning (and the pressing matter of whetherContinue reading “‘Why do people still vote for the ANC?’ asked the clever child, exasperatedly”

Madonsela, EFF’s red beret shortage, election estimates and more

I will make a decision on the caption competition soon, but meanwhile here is my latest news update and summary – the Madonsela story continues to grow and, frankly, should be encouraged to. The Public Protector clashes with Zuma’s security chiefs On Friday state security agencies abandoned their urgent interdict in the North Gauteng highContinue reading “Madonsela, EFF’s red beret shortage, election estimates and more”

Security cluster caption competition and election fever news

An irresistible opportunity for a caption competition arose when I saw this picture on Die Burger‘s webpage: What is intelligence minister Siyabonga  Cwele whispering in the ear of justice minister Jeff Radebe? What is Radebe thinking? I hesitate to ask. Post your suggestions in the comments section below. The winner will receive a copy of theContinue reading “Security cluster caption competition and election fever news”

Elections 2014, investment threats, DRC and crime intelligence chaos

Important defection from the ANC to the EFF, and the DA launches robust campaign in Soweto – but it is probably not yet enough to scare the ANC Appropriate concern grows at the Promotion of Investment and Protection Bill Stunning victory in eastern DRC is becoming a feather in Zuma’s cap …  … while theContinue reading “Elections 2014, investment threats, DRC and crime intelligence chaos”

Gordhan (the good, the bad and the ugly), DA succession, Cosatu split looking more likely, Zuma’s delightful gaffes … and much more

As promised some comments on the politics of Pravin Gordhan’s medium-term budget … but first forgive me for expressing some of my irritation at two of his (Gordhan’s)  recent statements. That will be followed by some of  the bits and pieces I found interesting in the weekly newspapers – if you didn’t see the ‘Zuma gaffes”Continue reading “Gordhan (the good, the bad and the ugly), DA succession, Cosatu split looking more likely, Zuma’s delightful gaffes … and much more”

#mansplaining listicles and click bait

This is a quick and casual aside as I await the more weighty matters of Pravin Gordhan’s medium-term budget policy statement at 14h00 today. For various reasons* I attempt to keep abreast of the rapidly evolving technological and cultural aspects of what we call ‘social media’ New cultural trends drive developments in language and thereContinue reading “#mansplaining listicles and click bait”

Vavi and the Numsa , DA taking Gauteng, mutters at the Treasury, grounds for even more caution on Zimbabwe and Malema’s visit to the prophet

Here are some bits and pieces of my latest commentary: Vavi and Numsa – the underlying risks Zwelinzima Vavi faces a special central executive committee of Cosatu meeting today to decide his fate following his admission that he had sex with a junior Cosatu employee in her office in the Cosatu headquarters. Numsa, the NationalContinue reading “Vavi and the Numsa , DA taking Gauteng, mutters at the Treasury, grounds for even more caution on Zimbabwe and Malema’s visit to the prophet”