Nelson Mandela and the ticker tape

(This is part of a brief note I sent out to clients this morning) Nelson Rolihlahla Dalibunga Mandela,  95, died last night on Thursday December 5 2013. There may be short-swings in some South African financial instruments but it is unlikely that this will be a longer term driver of the markets. Nelson Mandela hasContinue reading “Nelson Mandela and the ticker tape”

If the ANC was a soap opera slipping in the ratings …

Imagine you are the producer of a major and successful television soap-opera. Gradually, for reasons that are not immediately apparent, market research begins to indicate your share of the prime-time television audience is diminishing – and, further, that the declines are accelerating. I suspect what you do is try to work out whether the viewersContinue reading “If the ANC was a soap opera slipping in the ratings …”

Motlanthe’s pleasant bedside manner won’t solve mining crisis – but it can’t hurt

Herewith an extract from my weekly news commentary* as of 06h30 yesterday. ‘A minefield of obstacles for Motlanthe’ – Sunday Independent  The Presidency, in the person of Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe, launched the “Draft Framework Agreement for a Sustainable Mining Industry” on Friday. The document is based on an initial process of discussion with allContinue reading “Motlanthe’s pleasant bedside manner won’t solve mining crisis – but it can’t hurt”

Mandela and Mangaung – the fearful symmetry

(A quick and lightweight aside on a Sunday morning … not part of the ‘deep blue’ series, but bleak enough – I wouldn’t want to disappoint anybody.) Mandela ailing in the last few days before Mangaung? Perhaps the universe does have a sense of humour; one that delights in casual cruelties, sneering irony and aContinue reading “Mandela and Mangaung – the fearful symmetry”

Is any one version of a post-Mangaung ANC better than another?

First off, let me admit, that I have no choice but to believe that the answer to the question in the title is: yes. It’s an article of faith. Who can live in a world where the bullies and thugs, the greedy and manipulative, the powerful and the arrogant have won so decisively that it isContinue reading “Is any one version of a post-Mangaung ANC better than another?”

Manyi – when Race meets Class

I’ve been itching to get in my two cents worth about Jimmy Manyi’s various comments concerning ethnic minorities (here for his original statement on YouTube, here for Trevor Manuel’s robust criticism, here for the ANCYL’s counter-attack on Manuel  and defence of Manyi, here for ANC Secretary General Gwede Mantashe’s implicit criticism of Manuel … “weContinue reading “Manyi – when Race meets Class”

Nelson Mandela and the financial markets

The frenzied symphony of incompetence, pomposity, imperiousness and hysteria that the press, the Mandela family, Graça Machel and the Nelson Mandela Trust managed to produce around the mobile sickbed of the former president gives a small hint of things to come. (I personally enjoyed Peter Bruce’s comments – catch those here.) Clearly when the OldContinue reading “Nelson Mandela and the financial markets”

New Growth Path Framework bloodline

This is the first of three articles that look at the political and policy bloodline of the New Growth Path and the main criticisms that have emerged about the policy in the public domain over the last few days. This first post is a summary – using quotes and paraphrasing – of Ruling Alliance statementsContinue reading “New Growth Path Framework bloodline”

… celebrity a razor in the body …*

My sister was a famous model and in that capacity was invited to judge the Miss World competition at Sun City in 1995. She asked me to accompany her as her official partner for a whole weekend of glitzy celebration and judging.                          Continue reading “… celebrity a razor in the body …*”

Looking backwards and going forwards

I came across a long research note that I wrote in early 2007 exploring the impending succession process in the ANC to culminate at the Polokwane conference 7 months later. So I was writing before the June 2007  National General Council during which Jacob Zuma’s resignation/suspension as ANC deputy president was overturned from the floorContinue reading “Looking backwards and going forwards”

Make the circle bigger Nathi – or dance alone

Occasionally our correct and coded political dialogue is enlivened by a less experienced politician whose staff were out to lunch when their boss put pen to paper – or word in mouth, as the case may be. One such instructive episode has been a piece by Minister of Safety and Security (Police) Nathi Mthethwa inContinue reading “Make the circle bigger Nathi – or dance alone”

The State of the Madiba Nation

Twenty years ago today Nelson Mandela was released after serving 27 years in prison. Zapiro, as always, is the most elequent in his praise of the old man. Jacob Zuma will deliver his State of the Nation address tonight, in part in honour of the service and leadership of  Rohlihlala, in part to stand brieflyContinue reading “The State of the Madiba Nation”

Goodbye Mister Zuma, it’s been …. unsettling

I am trying to work out if Jacob Zuma is condemned to be a one term president; shuffled off the stage by a shamefaced ANC leadership as soon as humanly possible. I think he will be, unless he is saved by a titanic power-struggle that is not settled in time for the 2012 ANC nationalContinue reading “Goodbye Mister Zuma, it’s been …. unsettling”

The Price of One Man’s Life and Death?

Nelson Mandela’s 91st birthday Symbolic events usually have more than one meaning.  For those who comment on South African financial markets, Nelson Mandela’s 91st birthday (today) is probably “investment neutral”. However, financial markets do not list the price of everything. Born in Mvezo on the banks of the Mbashe near Qunu in the rural Transkei Nelson MandelaContinue reading “The Price of One Man’s Life and Death?”