If the ANC was a soap opera slipping in the ratings …

Imagine you are the producer of a major and successful television soap-opera.

Gradually, for reasons that are not immediately apparent, market research begins to indicate your share of the prime-time television audience is diminishing – and, further, that the declines are accelerating.

I suspect what you do is try to work out whether the viewers are being tempted away by a better soap, whether the quality of your show is slipping and/or whether your product is losing its appeal because the ‘demographic’ that follows your production is shrinking … or some combination of those.

Perhaps you try to adapt your trashy product to follow the shifting demographic; change the time-slot, perhaps kill off the older actors … have the Elizabethan extended family that has been the central theme be infiltrated by shape-shifting aliens who teleport the stately manor out of the English countryside and into a future post-apocalyptic New York … change the name to Downtown Abyss? Ok, maybe not.

Or you do a serious quality overhaul of your existing production, get better writers and introduce more popular and skilled actors, win back the defecting viewers … stick to your knitting, trust the product … and all those other management-speak exhortations.

I think the ANC is facing a crisis similar to that faced by the producers of this imaginary soap-opera. I suspect that the ANC, Agang and the DA do market research that is indicating and projecting significant voter swings away from the ANC . But I have nothing firmly in my hands other than rumours, leaks and hints.

So forgive me if I float an untested (and untestable at this time) hypothesis; one we are all going to hear bruted about soon: that it is ‘true’ that on current trends the ANC will get less than 59 percent of the vote next year but more than 52 percent, and further, that the ANC will receive less than 50 percent of the vote in 2019 (thumbsuck alerts all round).

The assumption is untestable (by me) because I don’t have the bespoke polling data and (by anybody else, in my opinion) because such data do not take adequately into account the myriad subjective and objective factors that might  impact on the trend.

But among the reasons I take seriously the possibility that this is, in fact, the trend is, for example, the rapid growth of Amcu and the concomitant shrinking of  Num. Another is this public domain ranking of Zuma’s approval rating amongst urban Africans by TNS Research published in the Sunday Times on 12/03/13:

%

Apr

‘09

Jun

‘09

Sep

‘09

Nov

‘09

Feb

‘10

May

‘10

Sep

‘10

Nov

‘10

Feb

‘11

Mar

‘11

Sep

‘11

O/N

‘11

Feb

‘12

Apr

‘12

Aug

‘12

Feb

‘13

Approve

52

57

53

58

43

51

42

49

49

48

45

55

55

46

48

41

Disapprove

29

13

19

23

41

33

44

34

35

38

41

38

35

46

44

51

Don’t know

19

31

28

12

17

16

15

17

16

14

14

14

10

8

8

9

Net positives

+23

+24

+34

+35

+2

+18

+2

+18

+2

+15

+14

+1

+20

0

+4

-10

 

… and updated by TNS this Monday (1/7/13) indicating a slight improvement in favour of Zuma (read from the top: 42, 50, 9 and -8). The point is there is a significant drop in Zuma’s approval ratings and concomitant rise in his disapproval ratings from February last year. It is reasonable to consider the possibility that this applies to the ANC (although, again, and at the risk of being pedantic, there is no established corollary between Zuma’s ratings and the ANC’s … but as a personal aside, I would imagine he must represent a specific liability.)

When I think of Mandela’s ill health and what I see as signs of how destabilising for the ANC his passing be may be (although the opposite could also be true), when I consider the anti-Zuma noises coming from Winnie Mandela and the frisson of mischievous excitement around Julius Malema’s proposed Economic Freedom Fighters … and when I put a whole mess of hints, trends, rumours and suppositions together with other metaphorical canaries that I use and which are dying around me like flies, I feel confident, for the first time since 1994, to at least consider how things might be when and if the ANC is clinging to an electoral majority, or perhaps even losing one.

As I begun to consider this (and helped along by a good and irritatingly insistent friend) I discovered that I still, subconsciously, conduct my professional duties under the burden of a normative (as in relating to an ‘ideal standard or model’)  assumption that has remained unchanged and largely unexamined since about 1994.

This normative assumption goes, roughly, something like this:

South African society is shaped by irresolvable contradictions. Most obviously between the poor, largely African, majority and the propertied white minority. Only an African National Congress, held comfortably in power by the trust and momentum established by its role and identity as leader of the liberation struggle, and by its clearly ‘African-led’ character, could possibly negotiate the perilous path between the imperative to deliver radical redress to the African majority and the absolute requirements to operate within the disciplines of global capital markets and to keep whites engaged and invested.

There are so many assumptions – and slippery phrases – in that statement, that I am not sure where to begin.

But briefly (in as far as that is possible):

Firstly I am implicitly using a (somewhat antiquated) theoretical model of society that is based on the idea that the competition between  groups with closely aligned economic interests acts as some kind of driver that interacts with and shapes other features of society, including the state and formal party political contests. This is a (hopefully sophisticated) version of the base/superstructure model of Marxist theory. As a rough, working model, I will continue to employ this system in political analysis – even if it is purely as a way of organising my thoughts. It is an elaboration of the injunction to follow the money which I consistently find the most useful hand-axe in the tool kit I use to help me work out, to my own satisfaction if no-one else’s, what the hell is going on.

Secondly, I am weighting the racial divide, its historical features, its ideological characteristics, the materiality of its ongoing consequences – including the radical disparity in wealth and income – more heavily than any other feature of South African society. ‘Politics’ occurs around such contradictions and our politics remains overdetermined by this structural feature. I think this remains true – but less true than it was 18 years ago. Primarily because class development, including the development of a black wealthy/property-owning class, a black middle-class and a sophisticated and slightly wealthier working class (driven by the changing character and function of labour processes and the relative growth of the services sector) dilutes the central contradiction and adds competing fissures.

Thirdly, I continue to assume it is imperative to keep whites “on board”… and that we have to keep within the discipline of global capital markets. I am also assuming (or perhaps estimating that on balance) the ANC still sees these as fundamental constraints. Those are brave (wild?) assumptions, I know, but I do not have all night. So moving swiftly along …

Finally, the aspect of my normative assumption about which I am most uncertain is the central one. Who says the ANC cannot fall below 50 percent, that an alliance of opposition parties will not get above 50 percent? And that if both those bridges are crossed we are into the game mode where  “(o)nly (the) African National Congress  … could possibly negotiate the perilous path”. Which means?

I  appear to be saying that in the event that those barriers are crossed we will fail to negotiate that path.

That we collapse in a heap? That the ANC morphs into Zanu-PF – but with even scarier tribalist and repressive features – to recapture the political initiative? That the ANC embarks on an ever more expansive looting of private and public assets to feed a patronage system that comes to replace all other mechanism that establish stability, but a system that is absolutely limited by the availability of such lootable assets? Or perhaps that our future will look something like what (might be) happening in Cairo tonight? … I will get to that as soon as I hit “publish”.

If a democratic election goes against the ANC why am I so uncertain that the party or party’s that the same election goes in favour of will be unable to govern?

I suspect I actually believe that without the ANC in a comfortable majority that things fall apart, that the centre cannot hold, that

Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed*

Thus, this is little more that my personal failure to imagine a future significantly different from the present, yes?

It appears that I am constrained by my own habits of thought and prejudices. Now there’s a big surprise.

So, back to the soap opera.

If the ANC is slipping in the ratings, it can chase the shifting demographic by attempting to spread its skirts ever more widely – although I think it is already beyond the limits of the possible with that indecorous exercise.

… or it can do the political equivalent of the narrative device of having space aliens infiltrate the family (hmm, that might have happened already – ed).  I am not sure what a radical discontinuity in the ANC’s brand might look like – I think it could go one of two general directions, but I would imagine that the ANC strategists defining ‘the message’ for the upcoming elections must envy the clean simplicity of the Economic Freedom Fighters emerging platform.

… or the ANC could improve its character and performance by sticking to its knitting: cleaning up its leadership and improving its governance performance and winning back the trust of its purportedly defecting support. My impression is the ANC is going in precisely the opposite direction, but who’s to say they wont turn it around in response to a mild shock in 2014?

I  do not hold to the popular notion that “anything is possible”, but I am prepared to accept that a lot more things will come to pass than I have been able to imagine.

* As always, the best poetic accompaniment to fretting about the future of our politics is William Butler YeatsThe Second Coming … catch the incomparable poem here.

6 thoughts on “If the ANC was a soap opera slipping in the ratings …

  1. I think you are being somewhat conservative in your approach, particularly when you refer to:

    1. The radical disparity in income and wealth across the racial divide.

    Wealth and income in the white middle class has been radically diluted in the last two decades. The generation that was retrenched to make way for BEE post 94 used it’s retirement savings and packages to support the unemployable generation that followed or to launch enterprises that largely failed. The result is a generation of retirees who cannot afford retirement and their children who can support neither themselves nor their parents.

    This does not exclude the possibility that there is a large amount of money concentrated in a few hands, some of which may be white, but that is different from seeing all whites as very wealthy, even in relative terms. Also, the majority of that money is unlikely to be domiciled in South Africa.

    2. The need to have the ANC in power to negotiate the path.

    I believe we have passed the tipping point. The ANC cannot come back from the brink. They have stolen almost R 800 billion from 1994 to date (source: Corruption Watch) and the majority on the impoverished side of the racial divide has nothing to show for it. To maintain the support they need to continue to govern (bungle), the ANC needs to show benefits to its (claimed) constituency. With the tax base shrinking at current rates (only ~1 million taxpayers pay more in tax than they receive in government services – source on Politics Web in a succession of articles – and are quietly emigrating quickly) and no second R 800 billion to loot from the white middle class, how will they show the benefits?

    I believe that, for the ANC to remain in power, we are not too far away from Cyprus style bank raids. It was acknowledged in 2012 that, for the first time since 1994, South African tax morality was under serious strain and was failing in some areas. To get the money to buy off their supporters, the ANC is going to have to resort to irregular (illegal / unconstitutional) methods.

    Contrary to your belief, I believe that our only way to negotiate the path is to force the ANC into opposition through coalition politics (DA and Agang would hopefully play a meaningful role in uniting moderates from all races and EFF would fizzle – having EFF as king-makers would be a disaster). Furthermore, a thorough, externally imposed purge of the criminal element within the ANC should accompany the transition of the party into opposition, with cover-ups excluded and meaningful jail-terms being the consequences of crime. The private sector corruptors should accompany them, starting with the construction industry which was so recently let off the hook so lightly.

    In conclusion, I, somewhat naively, hope to see the ANC dip below 50% in 2014 and for the process of clearing up their debacle to commence.

    This is not the organisation you were allied with in the eighties.

    PS: For a peek behind the scenes of how ANC power is traded internally, look into the 38 ANC councillors from KZN who were murdered in the 14 months before Mangaung. Look at who they opposed, and who is suspected of killing them. AND then look at the outcome – KZN supported JZ.

  2. Nic: What do make of the idea that Mandela’s passing benefits the ANC electorally; that, in the absence of any real ANC policy cohesion or them offering any fundamental set of reforms to restructrure those ” irresolvable contradictions” in South Africa, the party rallies the troops one more time and it becomes, by default, an election campaign from now through next year?

    1. Hi David – I do think this is a possible outcome. If you consider how huge the event of the funeral and the burial will be, the possibility for branding and claiming the ‘unbroken liberation tradition’ is very great … as is the opportunity to look good on probably the biggest media stage in the history of humanity … ‘once more dear comrades, for one final time: into the breach, raise the flags … etc etc.’. That being said, I think those effects are temporary … that the passing is more likely to lead to an exit of actual leaders and supporters – out of politics as well as into new or existing opposition parties.i.e. to an unravelling.

    1. Funny you should say that … because I did some fairly extensive checking around (for reasons I explain in the last line) and came across this:

      “From thence he came into France, whose fame and noble prowesse was there much bruted among the common people …”

      The Principal Navigations, Voyages, Traffiques and Discoveries of the English Nation

      “Kavitsky was giving evidence about the identifications of Soviet agents in the West, up here on the Hill, and the Russians evidently feared that he would name these the Cambridge five, amongst others Hiss was another one, I gather, that was being bruted about at the time.”

      Treason in the Blood: H. St. John Philby, Kim Philby, and the Spy Case of the Century

      Lots more examples here: http://www.wordnik.com/words/bruted

      The common spelling that I came across is ‘bruited’, as you correctly point out, but I rather liked the hint in the spelling i have used that people who speak authoritatively about the future as if they have just visited there are, in one way, brutes.

  3. Of course, post-2014 is up for debate, but I think that election is a lockdown with “Mandela” as election campaign slogan.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: