I comment on, and interpret, incidents like the shooting by police of at least 35 strikers at Marikana yesterday. Even as the gunfire fell silent the price of Lonmin shares fell and the price of platinum spiked in response to supply concerns. It’s what I do for a living – the people that pay myContinue reading “The massacre at Marikana”
Category Archives: Succession
Malema: a stick being used to beat Zuma? Just a thought …
I am sure no-one has failed to notice the flood of South African high achievers passing through the United Kingdom over the last week or so. A golfer was there recently, some swimmers, a group of cricketers … and, oh yes, Julius Malema. Julius told BBC and Sky News that he was in London workingContinue reading “Malema: a stick being used to beat Zuma? Just a thought …”
The Second Transition
Occasionally I publish slides from a current presentation series and here are a few from something I am busy with called: “The Second Transition – SA politics and policy somewhere twixt hither and yon”. The general idea is the ANC government is determined to move beyond the ‘transitional’ arrangements that it agreed to in 1994 andContinue reading “The Second Transition”
What could derail Jacob Zuma at this late hour?
Well it is certainly not Julius. Last night his expulsion from the ANC and the ANC Youth League was confirmed by the ruling party’s national disciplinary committee. His ‘fixer’, secretary-general Sindiso Magaqa, was suspended for a year – making any attempt to ‘rule-by-wire’ difficult. The appeals committee chaired by Cyril Ramaphosa also confirmed the three-yearContinue reading “What could derail Jacob Zuma at this late hour?”
African National Congress chasing its tail … and biting it
This is a screenshot from the front page of the ANC’s website accessed early this morning: It’s those latest press statements I am interested in. That’s the last five major releases from the Ruling Party, every one of which is exclusively concerned with the vicious battle taking place within the organisation. Working backwards: April 4Continue reading “African National Congress chasing its tail … and biting it”
The ANC as a proxy for the nation?
It’s tempting to focus on the ANC as if its history and prospects are a proxy for the history and prospects of the country as a whole. The party’s centenary celebrations this week will strengthen the sense that this is indeed the case. The last hundred years of South African history has been about theContinue reading “The ANC as a proxy for the nation?”
Going into the dark
The previous post was headlined “The ANC’s surprising return to form” and it stayed as the face of this website throughout a week in which we were reminded of the nest of corruption our president emerged from. … oh yes, and a week when the ANC in parliament passed the Protection of Information Bill –Continue reading “Going into the dark”
Game of Thrones in the ANC
A good friend of mine in New York* recently put me on to “A Song of Ice and Fire” – a seemingly endless series of swords and sorcery novels by George R R Martin. This is the crack cocaine of fantasy fiction but it is also a surprisingly brilliant study of politics and power vacuums.Continue reading “Game of Thrones in the ANC”
Julius Malema and predicting the future you want
The déjà vu is washing over me like the phantom symptoms of a late winter bout of hypochondria. I remember the lead-up to Polokwane. The thuggish crowds outside Jacob Zuma’s court appearances. The man we had known was in Shaik’s pockets since 1993, he who famously couldn’t keep it in his pants, the rape accusedContinue reading “Julius Malema and predicting the future you want”
Is this the way the cookie crumbles?
This way: The business of government becomes the business of enriching the governors … rather than the business of governing and thereby serving the electorate’s overarching interests? The extremely rich rewards to be gained from holding political office cause the party list process – especially in the ANC – to become one of mayhem andContinue reading “Is this the way the cookie crumbles?”
Chris Hani – and my part in South Africa’s downfall
For a brief time in the late 1980’s I had occasion to spend some time with Chris Hani, then Chief of Staff of the ANC’s uMkhonto we Sizwe and Secretary General of the South African Communist Party. I was working for the Institute for a Democratic Alternative for South Africa (IDASA) and a meeting between the ANC’sContinue reading “Chris Hani – and my part in South Africa’s downfall”
Suddenly it’s all sweetness and light?
It’s been a difficult week, and I started the following post on Monday soon after hearing the general tone of the press and analysts response to the cabinet reshuffle. I wanted to publish while the accolades for Jacob Zuma were still glowing and, unfortunately for both the President and me, the corrective doubts and scepticismContinue reading “Suddenly it’s all sweetness and light?”
Looking backwards and going forwards
I came across a long research note that I wrote in early 2007 exploring the impending succession process in the ANC to culminate at the Polokwane conference 7 months later. So I was writing before the June 2007 National General Council during which Jacob Zuma’s resignation/suspension as ANC deputy president was overturned from the floorContinue reading “Looking backwards and going forwards”
Stalking Horses at the NGC
I have been sickly and trying to pay the bills. All my ‘paid for’ commentary on the NGC is done and I can finally get back to home ground where I feel more comfortable to make some wild accusations – and I will, finally, be more explicit in this post about who I think theContinue reading “Stalking Horses at the NGC”
If you’re winning and you know it clap your hands, clap your hands
Reading Stephen Grootes’ tweets this morning while Jacob Zuma was delivering the Political Report at the ANC NGC was a little like listening to soccer on the radio – you had to rely on the noise level to guess at what was happening. Grootes’ excellent commentary during the presidential address gave lots of attention toContinue reading “If you’re winning and you know it clap your hands, clap your hands”
Nic Borain 