Beat the dog till the owner comes out

Tokyo comes out to defend Julius Malema in the disciplinary hearing? To be followed by Winnie Madikizela-Mandela and Tony Yengeni? It is an almost too perfect reversal of Julius Malema’s own metaphor after his victory at the Eastern Cape provincial conference of the ANC Youth League in August 2010: “We will never surrender to Blade.Continue reading “Beat the dog till the owner comes out”

Julius Malema and predicting the future you want

The déjà vu is washing over me like the phantom symptoms of a late winter bout of hypochondria. I remember the lead-up to Polokwane. The thuggish crowds outside Jacob Zuma’s court appearances. The man we had known was in Shaik’s pockets since 1993, he who famously couldn’t keep it in his pants, the rape accusedContinue reading “Julius Malema and predicting the future you want”

‘Economic Freedom’ debate rescued from hijackers

Two brief thoughts – on a rainy Cape Town Sunday: Firstly – a by-product of Malema’s (possible) retreat I have a feeling that debates ranging from mine nationalisation, land distribution and continued white economic dominance in the South African economy have just been saved from the gangsters in the ANC Youth League who have beenContinue reading “‘Economic Freedom’ debate rescued from hijackers”

Malema agenda in retreat

I am back from my travels where I spent much time discussing the ANC Youth League’s “nationalisation of mines” call with investors. The long and the short of my views are that I don’t think the ANC will decide to nationalise the mines at its December 2012 elective conference in Mangaung. I do, however, thinkContinue reading “Malema agenda in retreat”

Neither the best nor worst of all possible worlds

Arrived late last night in New York from London (and Edinburgh and Frankfurt)  and the lag means I am only going to want to fall asleep at exactly the time it will be most unsuitable to do so. I have been travelling (for Indian owned Religare Capital Markets, where I have a new berth) withContinue reading “Neither the best nor worst of all possible worlds”

Some observations about the election lead-up

I am feeling the welcome pressure of a flood of paid work. The only drawback to this happy state of affairs is I have not been able to put as much effort into updating this website as I would like. In future I will generally be posting the quirkier side of politics and investment riskContinue reading “Some observations about the election lead-up”

Jacob Zuma versus the ANC Youth League

Yesterday President Jacob Zuma met white farmers in the KwaZulu Natal Midlands and reassured them about nationalisation of mines and about land seizures. He said: “What Malema said is neither the ANC’s nor the government’s policy … the farming community must not be shaken by his comments.” A few moments ago the ANC Youth LeagueContinue reading “Jacob Zuma versus the ANC Youth League”

It’s war out there

As the cannonade and sharp retorts of the Municipal Election become deafening, it strikes me how alike are elections and wars. Both these human endeavours are faced with comparable technological, communication, infrastructural and personnel challenges. Generals preparing for war and political leaders for elections have this in common: They must have a game plan andContinue reading “It’s war out there”

Black fabric, the creak of leather and a flash of red …

Remember the ANC’s online leather jacket sale; those amazing garments seemingly designed for a camp 1970’s version of a black Star Wars? And the Stabproof Protektorvest (TM) that some enterprising person tried to flog to 2010 World Cup visitors to South Africa who needed to withstand the blows they could expect to be rained upon themContinue reading “Black fabric, the creak of leather and a flash of red …”

Manyi – when Race meets Class

I’ve been itching to get in my two cents worth about Jimmy Manyi’s various comments concerning ethnic minorities (here for his original statement on YouTube, here for Trevor Manuel’s robust criticism, here for the ANCYL’s counter-attack on Manuel  and defence of Manyi, here for ANC Secretary General Gwede Mantashe’s implicit criticism of Manuel … “weContinue reading “Manyi – when Race meets Class”

Raw fish served on a bed of … human sweat?

I love that scene in the Bucket List where the poor but proud Morgan Freeman character quietly points out to the rich and arrogant Jack Nicholson that the coffee he brews in a silver pot and savours from Dresden china is made from beans shat out by a lemur in South America – well that’sContinue reading “Raw fish served on a bed of … human sweat?”

Pictures of a possible future

I occasionally publish slides that I have used for clients as part of my attempt to examine political and investment risks to them. Below are 3 from a presentation I delivered soon after the ANC NGC. See if you can identify all the people concerned – a sort of politics general knowledge test ( youContinue reading “Pictures of a possible future”

Suddenly it’s all sweetness and light?

It’s been a difficult week, and I started the following post on Monday soon after hearing the general tone of the press and analysts response to the cabinet reshuffle. I wanted to publish while the accolades for Jacob Zuma were still glowing and, unfortunately for both the President and me, the corrective doubts and scepticismContinue reading “Suddenly it’s all sweetness and light?”

Stalking Horses at the NGC

I have been sickly and trying to pay the bills. All my ‘paid for’ commentary on the NGC is done and I can finally get back to home ground where I feel more comfortable to make some wild accusations – and I will, finally, be more explicit in this post about who I think theContinue reading “Stalking Horses at the NGC”

Zuma recalled? I just can’t see it …

I want to discuss this business of commentators predicting that Zuma will be recalled before he has finished his initial term – but first a brief advertisement. This blog was set up, in part, to generate paid work for myself. One of the things that I do for a living is talk to (or writeContinue reading “Zuma recalled? I just can’t see it …”