Some of the things we think we know about revolts and revolutions – but that do not always apply: Where there are adequate elective processes dissatisfied people believe they can influence outcomes through voting and therefore are unlikely to make the sacrifices required of a revolution. Revolts are generally lead and organised by the middleContinue reading “The forces for and against a South African revolt”
Category Archives: History
Where blame lies
The raging race debate forces me to think about how we become culpable. I came across an obscene argument the other day. Perhaps you have seen something similar? It went like this: the Japanese are reaping what they have sown; the earthquake, the tsunamis, the nuclear threat and the unseasonal blizzards in the north areContinue reading “Where blame lies”
Complex, unstable and unpredictable
We are the ape with the pattern recognition dial cranked up high and this has served us well over our evolutionary history. But when we assess risk in systems as complex as the global economy our instinctive wariness at the sudden silence in the Palaeolithic forest is not necessarily useful – and might be partContinue reading “Complex, unstable and unpredictable”
Egypt, my Egypt
I am clicking “Publish” in a rush … I suspect I will come to regret this later. Anyway: The popular mobilisations in Tunisia, Egypt and a swath of authoritarian North African and Middle Eastern states are interesting and important for more reasons than can be named, let alone examined, here. But the aspects that haveContinue reading “Egypt, my Egypt”
Nelson Mandela and the financial markets
The frenzied symphony of incompetence, pomposity, imperiousness and hysteria that the press, the Mandela family, Graça Machel and the Nelson Mandela Trust managed to produce around the mobile sickbed of the former president gives a small hint of things to come. (I personally enjoyed Peter Bruce’s comments – catch those here.) Clearly when the OldContinue reading “Nelson Mandela and the financial markets”
The great South African soapie
Has anything changed? The guy in the middle is the ANC and his lying entreaties are addressed to Cosatu and the SACP while his real passion – and the furtive fumbling in the dark – are with business, global and domestic. I commissioned that cartoon in 1999 and Cathy Quickfall did a better job thanContinue reading “The great South African soapie”
New Growth Path Framework bloodline
This is the first of three articles that look at the political and policy bloodline of the New Growth Path and the main criticisms that have emerged about the policy in the public domain over the last few days. This first post is a summary – using quotes and paraphrasing – of Ruling Alliance statementsContinue reading “New Growth Path Framework bloodline”
Who is Cronin’s enemy?
Jeremy Cronin’s criticism of Cosatu’s recent hosting of a “Civil Society Conference” is impossible to understand without understanding his – and the SACP’s – assumptions about the world and South Africa in November 2010. Cronin’s premise is that “an enemy” is attempting to make the public debate about the future of South Africa focus onContinue reading “Who is Cronin’s enemy?”
Pictures of a possible future
I occasionally publish slides that I have used for clients as part of my attempt to examine political and investment risks to them. Below are 3 from a presentation I delivered soon after the ANC NGC. See if you can identify all the people concerned – a sort of politics general knowledge test ( youContinue reading “Pictures of a possible future”
… celebrity a razor in the body …*
My sister was a famous model and in that capacity was invited to judge the Miss World competition at Sun City in 1995. She asked me to accompany her as her official partner for a whole weekend of glitzy celebration and judging. Continue reading “… celebrity a razor in the body …*”
Winning, losing and declaring a truce in the battle of ideas
Jacob Zuma’s decision to meet with Gareth Cliff and Woolworths’ decision to put Lig, Juig, Joy and Lééf back on the shelves makes me wonder about the rules of engagement in the battle of ideas in the age of celebrity and social media. In the 1980’s those of us connected to the ANC in theContinue reading “Winning, losing and declaring a truce in the battle of ideas”
Looking backwards and going forwards
I came across a long research note that I wrote in early 2007 exploring the impending succession process in the ANC to culminate at the Polokwane conference 7 months later. So I was writing before the June 2007 National General Council during which Jacob Zuma’s resignation/suspension as ANC deputy president was overturned from the floorContinue reading “Looking backwards and going forwards”
Is the ANC really beyond redemption?
It is difficult not to imagine the tearing of some deep and important ligament in our body politic in the tone and content of this debate that starts in The Times, ostensibly between Pallo Jordan and Justice Malala and ostensibly about media freedom. The battle is joined – and complicated – by the ANC inContinue reading “Is the ANC really beyond redemption?”
Zuma recalled? I just can’t see it …
I want to discuss this business of commentators predicting that Zuma will be recalled before he has finished his initial term – but first a brief advertisement. This blog was set up, in part, to generate paid work for myself. One of the things that I do for a living is talk to (or writeContinue reading “Zuma recalled? I just can’t see it …”
Selebi plays Zuma, Agliotti plays Shaik
I can’t help but think of the Selebi corruption trial and conviction as a proxy for the big one that never happened. There’s a story about Glenn Agliotti wandering around Shell House in the early 90’s, undoubtedly looking to meet and great the returning leaders of the ANC. Somewhere in those chaotic corridors where incompetenceContinue reading “Selebi plays Zuma, Agliotti plays Shaik”
Nic Borain 