Some of the things we think we know about revolts and revolutions – but that do not always apply: Where there are adequate elective processes dissatisfied people believe they can influence outcomes through voting and therefore are unlikely to make the sacrifices required of a revolution. Revolts are generally lead and organised by the middleContinue reading “The forces for and against a South African revolt”
Category Archives: threat analysis
How revolting could we get?
Black Swans are loose upon the world: The 2008 global debt crisis, Eyjafjallajökull (pronunciation fun here), Haiti and New Zealand Earthquake, China drought, Queensland floods the political crises in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and the Japanese earthquake/tsunami/nuclear disasters seem to prove that it is not the mundane everyday that shapes the world butContinue reading “How revolting could we get?”
Complex, unstable and unpredictable
We are the ape with the pattern recognition dial cranked up high and this has served us well over our evolutionary history. But when we assess risk in systems as complex as the global economy our instinctive wariness at the sudden silence in the Palaeolithic forest is not necessarily useful – and might be partContinue reading “Complex, unstable and unpredictable”
Stalking Horses at the NGC
I have been sickly and trying to pay the bills. All my ‘paid for’ commentary on the NGC is done and I can finally get back to home ground where I feel more comfortable to make some wild accusations – and I will, finally, be more explicit in this post about who I think theContinue reading “Stalking Horses at the NGC”
Excellent Crime Stats – against a dark background
From murder to car jacking and from GBH to rape the April 2009 – March 2010 Crime Statistics published yesterday indicate significant and welcome improvements. Unfortunately the absolute levels are still extraordinarily high and in one area, crimes against women and children, there have been large and distressing increases. See the really unusually well writtenContinue reading “Excellent Crime Stats – against a dark background”
Are we there yet?
The ArcelorMittal /Imperial Crown Trading deal (in all its complexity) is deeply threatening to the future of investment in South Africa. If I ran a display indicating threat levels to the South African democracy the readings would be higher now than at any time since the successful establishment of majority rule in 1994. Such aContinue reading “Are we there yet?”
Kampala bombings as ambush marketing
Sunday’s Kampala (capital city of Uganda) bombings during the World Cup finals in a rugby club and a restaurant where people had gathered to watch the match were important for too many reasons to name here – although the tragic human suffering, with the death toll standing at 76, must rank first. For those whoContinue reading “Kampala bombings as ambush marketing”
Unemployment growth is a deep systemic threat
The quarterly Labour Force Survey from Statistics SA is a timely reminder of what really matters when assessing political risk associated with investing in South Africa. Julius Malema’s predations, Jacob Zuma’s extraordinary sex life, Cosatu’s and the SACP’s millennial economics would just be irritating noise, unless they relate to the country’s chronic levels of unemployment,Continue reading “Unemployment growth is a deep systemic threat”
The hidden hand in service delivery protests
It is starting to be whispered that there is a “hidden hand” in the service delivery protests*. The problem (of the protests) is serious and threatening and government is starting to worry about high-profile violence during the World Cup. These protest share a strong crossover constituency and architecture with the xenophobic violence that occurred MayContinue reading “The hidden hand in service delivery protests”
The Stabproof Protektorvest
Here is something along the same lines, or at least in the same universe of sartorial symbolism, as the ANC leather jackets story. You couldn’t have failed to read about the stab-proof protective vests being marketed to soccer fans who hope to visit South Africa during the World Cup. You can get yours in yourContinue reading “The Stabproof Protektorvest”
While we were away …
Having just returned from an idyllic holiday, I am forced to take stock of what I missed … The Communists versus the TenderCapitalists A “TenderCapitalist” is not an over-sensitive entrepreneur. It is a South African person, much loathed by the communists, who uses his or her race and/or political connection to win tenders from theContinue reading “While we were away …”
Are we becoming the worst we can be?
Here is something I wrote during the April general election – with a few minor edits. It is becoming increasingly relevant, as “the left” is backed into a corner and the Malema style populists seem to hold sway. Bread and Circuses Opinion polls indicate that the ruling African National Congress will shrug off five yearsContinue reading “Are we becoming the worst we can be?”
Pirates of Polokwane* Shaik their Booty
That was going to be my headline for the story I was going to write about the appointment of Mo Shaik to head the secret service. I decided not to write about it. I simply can’t. I was going to point out that the South African Secret Service is responsible for all non-military foreign intelligenceContinue reading “Pirates of Polokwane* Shaik their Booty”
2010 – imagine the worst
Think of the outrage at the Munich Olympics in the summer of 1974; the Champions League Twenty20 cricket in Mumbai last year; the boycott of the Moscow Olympics in 1980; bomb threats at the Grand National in 1997; the Sri Lankan marathon massacre in 2008; the extensive security fears at the Ryder Cup post the September 11 attacks andContinue reading “2010 – imagine the worst”
Nic Borain 