Youth unemployment – our deepest sytemic threat

If you thought the interminable debates about the laws and institutions that structure our labour market and government subsidies for first time youth workers were just silly ideological wrangling then take a look at this graph from the OECD economic survey of South Africa. Let the extraordinary relative numbers speak for themselves. Youth unemployment seemsContinue reading “Youth unemployment – our deepest sytemic threat”

A Looter Continua

In a rush on my way from Namibia to the Garden Route – it’s a hard life, but someone has to live it. The big stories are: the continuing decline in employment numbers; the National Working Committee’s decision not to charge Zwelinzima Vavi but to criticise him for alleging that Minister of Telecommunications Siphiwe NyandaContinue reading “A Looter Continua”

What would the ANC do without Cosatu?

You hear it bruted about that Cosatu provided the organisational structure and person-power to wrestle the ANC from Thabo Mbeki and his Xhosa-Nostra. You also might be told that the same strengths of Cosatu has won the ANC successive national elections. However, if you listen closely and to another set of people, you will hearContinue reading “What would the ANC do without Cosatu?”

Ruling Alliance breaking under the strain of corruption of “members of the cabinet and/or senior party leaders or officials”

Short of an angry and vindictive divorce you don’t really get a more serious breakdown between previous partners than described by the amazingly revealing Cosatu’s press statement yesterday threatening the end of the ruling alliance because ANC has laid disciplinary charges against Cosatu secretary general Zwelinzima Vavi. This is what the statement reveals: The powerfulContinue reading “Ruling Alliance breaking under the strain of corruption of “members of the cabinet and/or senior party leaders or officials””

Strike while the iron is hot

No-one can take serious issue with the leopard for pouncing down on the neck of a wayward sheep and dragging the carcass back up the rocky outcrop to her cubs for a leisurely feed. It’s what leopards do. Engaging the leopard in any special pleading about the benefits of keeping this particular sheep alive is,Continue reading “Strike while the iron is hot”

The ANC is (still) the prize

Why setting back Julius Malema is important Julius Malema has received a body blow and is reeling about the ring. I mostly want to discuss why this is important – beyond the obvious reasons that drive the obsessive media focus on the grandiose little ANC Youth League President. But first a bit of context: AsContinue reading “The ANC is (still) the prize”

London Calling

Herewith a note I wrote a week ago for a South African client concerning a recent whip around the London fund management industry Foreign fund managers perceptions of South African political risk I recently had an opportunity to interact with a few London-based global emerging market fund managers. These were generally from long-only equity funds,Continue reading “London Calling”

The hidden hand in service delivery protests

It is starting to be whispered that there is a “hidden hand” in the service delivery protests*. The problem (of the protests) is serious and threatening and government is starting to worry about high-profile violence during the World Cup. These protest share a strong crossover constituency and architecture with the xenophobic violence that occurred MayContinue reading “The hidden hand in service delivery protests”

The productive classes versus the unproductive classes

As promised another occasional slide that illustrates a major theme of the moment. I have put the meat into the caption – note the reversion to some traditional Marxist theory … fractions of capital and the working class fighting to wield the state?  Was that Althusser or Nicos Poulantzas … hmm, no, for them theContinue reading “The productive classes versus the unproductive classes”

The new songsheet of the Left

A quick run through documents and press statement emanating from the Congress of South Africa Trade Unions and the South African Communist Party reveals the existence of a new ‘song sheet’ our crimson brethren have devised to help them sing in tune with each other. This is something more than a coordinated set of slogansContinue reading “The new songsheet of the Left”

Cosatu and the ANC: the fat’s in the fire

I have been sitting on this for a few days partly because Cosatu’s Central Executive Committee statement on Thursday last week and the ANC response are as harsh as we have seen – and that includes the tone of voice that accompanied Cosatu’s huge strike against ‘Mbeki’s privatisation’ in 2002. Cosatu has a long andContinue reading “Cosatu and the ANC: the fat’s in the fire”

Eskom, the ANC, government and public trust

The extreme nature of the reaction to the electricity price increase is about a number of things, perhaps most obviously: the public and institutional suspicion that the crisis in Eskom is due to cronyism at a management level and looting via tender abuse by a politically connected elite, and the Great Recession has left theContinue reading “Eskom, the ANC, government and public trust”

Goodbye Mister Zuma, it’s been …. unsettling

I am trying to work out if Jacob Zuma is condemned to be a one term president; shuffled off the stage by a shamefaced ANC leadership as soon as humanly possible. I think he will be, unless he is saved by a titanic power-struggle that is not settled in time for the 2012 ANC nationalContinue reading “Goodbye Mister Zuma, it’s been …. unsettling”

Sexwale: Oh I just can’t wait to be king!

The spat over Tokoyo Sexwale’s report criticising Gwede Mantashe for not stopping the booing and humiliation of Julius Malema at the SACP conference in December is more important than it seems. The direction a country takes (economically, socially and culturally) emerges from the interplay of too many factors to make the future even vaguely predictable.Continue reading “Sexwale: Oh I just can’t wait to be king!”

While we were away …

Having  just returned from an idyllic holiday, I am forced to take stock of what I missed … The Communists versus the TenderCapitalists A “TenderCapitalist” is not an over-sensitive entrepreneur. It is a South African person, much loathed by the communists,  who uses his or her  race and/or political connection to win tenders from theContinue reading “While we were away …”