I came across a long research note that I wrote in early 2007 exploring the impending succession process in the ANC to culminate at the Polokwane conference 7 months later. So I was writing before the June 2007 National General Council during which Jacob Zuma’s resignation/suspension as ANC deputy president was overturned from the floorContinue reading “Looking backwards and going forwards”
Category Archives: Thabo Mbeki
If I had to cook up an explanation ….
(I posted this in the boarding queue at Cape Town International on my way to Johannesburg and that means there were a few typographical errors, some of which I have now corrected. Where the sense has changed – as in the final paragraph – I indicate the changes I have made.) If my life dependedContinue reading “If I had to cook up an explanation ….”
Zuma recalled? I just can’t see it …
I want to discuss this business of commentators predicting that Zuma will be recalled before he has finished his initial term – but first a brief advertisement. This blog was set up, in part, to generate paid work for myself. One of the things that I do for a living is talk to (or writeContinue reading “Zuma recalled? I just can’t see it …”
The end of the ruling alliance
Commentators and politicians are outdoing themselves announcing either the end or the permanence of the ANC/SACP/Cosatu alliance. This is Jacob Zuma on the subject – at the Kwazulu-Natal ANC General Council on Friday: I have read so many alliance obituaries. If leaders express their views, people think that we are fighting … The alliance willContinue reading “The end of the ruling alliance”
Waiting for a saviour to rise from these streets*
Just when all hope flees, as the last good politician still within government leaves his/her post to join the feeding frenzy and as the last decent officials trying to do a public service throw up their hands in disgust; and as the striking workers blockade the last functional HIV/AIDS clinic and trash the streets again;Continue reading “Waiting for a saviour to rise from these streets*”
The ANC is (still) the prize
Why setting back Julius Malema is important Julius Malema has received a body blow and is reeling about the ring. I mostly want to discuss why this is important – beyond the obvious reasons that drive the obsessive media focus on the grandiose little ANC Youth League President. But first a bit of context: AsContinue reading “The ANC is (still) the prize”
London Calling
Herewith a note I wrote a week ago for a South African client concerning a recent whip around the London fund management industry Foreign fund managers perceptions of South African political risk I recently had an opportunity to interact with a few London-based global emerging market fund managers. These were generally from long-only equity funds,Continue reading “London Calling”
The new songsheet of the Left
A quick run through documents and press statement emanating from the Congress of South Africa Trade Unions and the South African Communist Party reveals the existence of a new ‘song sheet’ our crimson brethren have devised to help them sing in tune with each other. This is something more than a coordinated set of slogansContinue reading “The new songsheet of the Left”
Who can say what the future holds for Zuma?
Will Zuma serve a second term? Will he serve out his first term? Who dares give an answer to these questions? Oh, alight I will. I have burned myself before by being a little too sure and a lot too wrong about what the future holds. Analysts like myself are constantly encouraged to take aContinue reading “Who can say what the future holds for Zuma?”
Zuma – time for his democratic technocrats to shine
This is not a budget review. There are just too many of them out there and I am in the middle of a roadshow to the South African fund management industry where the budget is being VERY well received. This is more a comment on the whole budget season that yesterday’s excellent National Budget began.Continue reading “Zuma – time for his democratic technocrats to shine”
Goodbye Mister Zuma, it’s been …. unsettling
I am trying to work out if Jacob Zuma is condemned to be a one term president; shuffled off the stage by a shamefaced ANC leadership as soon as humanly possible. I think he will be, unless he is saved by a titanic power-struggle that is not settled in time for the 2012 ANC nationalContinue reading “Goodbye Mister Zuma, it’s been …. unsettling”
Apartheid Reparations and Foreign Investment
Could IBM, Fujitsu, Ford, General Motors , Rheinmetall and Daimler be guilty of “knowing participation in and/or aiding and abetting of the crimes of apartheid; extrajudicial killing; torture; prolonged unlawful detention; and cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment”? Should they be tried for this crime in a US federal court? If they are found guilty shouldContinue reading “Apartheid Reparations and Foreign Investment”
Those aren’t Polokwane chickens!
I was dreading yesterday’s mini-budget. Firstly the objective conditions were against us. It was clear that the Great Recession was going to squeeze revenue – and therefore the space available for the new Minister of Finance to operate in. As it turns out, lower revenue and higher than expected expenditure has pushed the estimated deficitContinue reading “Those aren’t Polokwane chickens!”
The Polokwane chickens are coming home today …
Today Pravin Gordhan presents his (and Jacob Zuma’s) first Medium Term Budget Policy Statement. The post-Polokwane guillotine has been working overtime off late and we have seen the last remnants of the Ancien Régime flushed from the party, the state and government. The last man standing is Trevor Manuel, balancing precariously on a rapidly shrinkingContinue reading “The Polokwane chickens are coming home today …”
Farewell to Peter Mayibuye*
Joel Netshitenzhe has resigned as Director General in Trevor Manuel’s National Planning Commission in the presidency. This comes a day after President Zuma reshuffled and attempted to explain the various roles to be played by the various ministers who fall into the economics cluster. The Business Day article suggested that Zuma had caved in toContinue reading “Farewell to Peter Mayibuye*”
Nic Borain 