It’s tempting to focus on the ANC as if its history and prospects are a proxy for the history and prospects of the country as a whole. The party’s centenary celebrations this week will strengthen the sense that this is indeed the case. The last hundred years of South African history has been about theContinue reading “The ANC as a proxy for the nation?”
Category Archives: Macro-economics
The centre holds – for now
A guest post from my friend and colleague Sandra Gordon. Sandra is a respected financial market economist and we increasingly present work as a team in what is often called “a dog and pony show” … although in our case there is some disagreement over who will be the dog and who will be theContinue reading “The centre holds – for now”
The great South African soapie
Has anything changed? The guy in the middle is the ANC and his lying entreaties are addressed to Cosatu and the SACP while his real passion – and the furtive fumbling in the dark – are with business, global and domestic. I commissioned that cartoon in 1999 and Cathy Quickfall did a better job thanContinue reading “The great South African soapie”
If this is the New Growth Path what’s the Old Growth Path?
This is the second of three articles about the New Growth Path (NGP) Framework released last week by the Ministry of Economic Development. One of the architects (I must assume) of the NGP, Neva Makgetla (an economist long associated with Cosatu and now deputy director general in the Department of Economic Development) recently examined bothContinue reading “If this is the New Growth Path what’s the Old Growth Path?”
New Growth Path Framework bloodline
This is the first of three articles that look at the political and policy bloodline of the New Growth Path and the main criticisms that have emerged about the policy in the public domain over the last few days. This first post is a summary – using quotes and paraphrasing – of Ruling Alliance statementsContinue reading “New Growth Path Framework bloodline”
Stalking Horses at the NGC
I have been sickly and trying to pay the bills. All my ‘paid for’ commentary on the NGC is done and I can finally get back to home ground where I feel more comfortable to make some wild accusations – and I will, finally, be more explicit in this post about who I think theContinue reading “Stalking Horses at the NGC”
Cosatu’s plans for full employment
Cosatu has released its long awaited document in which it provides the facts (as it sees them) and theoretical underpinnings for “A Growth Path Towards Full Employment” – and in doing so attempts to align its views with those emanating from Minister Ebrahim Patel’s Department of Economic Planning (the Two Year Strategic Plan) as wellContinue reading “Cosatu’s plans for full employment”
Sink or swim
Here is the summary of South Africa’s performance in the Global Competitiveness Report 2010 – 2011. The highlights are mine and the seriousness of the problems is obvious.. While we quite rightly bemoan health, education and labour market failures it is interesting to note we were top ranked – in the whole world! – inContinue reading “Sink or swim”
Politicians tend to hate markets – for good reason
… politicians and chief executives of all political colours become angry when anonymous markets do not take their assertions at face value. The anonymous market cannot be dictated to or defeated in debate. Leaders cannot shout down, fire or arrest the nonexistent Mr Market. This from a fine piece of commentary from John Kay inContinue reading “Politicians tend to hate markets – for good reason”
London Calling
Herewith a note I wrote a week ago for a South African client concerning a recent whip around the London fund management industry Foreign fund managers perceptions of South African political risk I recently had an opportunity to interact with a few London-based global emerging market fund managers. These were generally from long-only equity funds,Continue reading “London Calling”
Cosatu and the ANC: the fat’s in the fire
I have been sitting on this for a few days partly because Cosatu’s Central Executive Committee statement on Thursday last week and the ANC response are as harsh as we have seen – and that includes the tone of voice that accompanied Cosatu’s huge strike against ‘Mbeki’s privatisation’ in 2002. Cosatu has a long andContinue reading “Cosatu and the ANC: the fat’s in the fire”
Zuma – time for his democratic technocrats to shine
This is not a budget review. There are just too many of them out there and I am in the middle of a roadshow to the South African fund management industry where the budget is being VERY well received. This is more a comment on the whole budget season that yesterday’s excellent National Budget began.Continue reading “Zuma – time for his democratic technocrats to shine”
The Alliance Summit is the business
The Alliance Summit on the weekend has significantly reduced confusion about policy and risk – although monetary policy is still under review. Background “The Alliance” met at Esselen Park, Ekurhuleni this weekend. This meeting consisted of the the African National Congress (ANC), the South African Communist Party (SACP), the Congress of South African Trade UnionsContinue reading “The Alliance Summit is the business”
The Polokwane chickens are coming home today …
Today Pravin Gordhan presents his (and Jacob Zuma’s) first Medium Term Budget Policy Statement. The post-Polokwane guillotine has been working overtime off late and we have seen the last remnants of the Ancien Régime flushed from the party, the state and government. The last man standing is Trevor Manuel, balancing precariously on a rapidly shrinkingContinue reading “The Polokwane chickens are coming home today …”
Farewell to Peter Mayibuye*
Joel Netshitenzhe has resigned as Director General in Trevor Manuel’s National Planning Commission in the presidency. This comes a day after President Zuma reshuffled and attempted to explain the various roles to be played by the various ministers who fall into the economics cluster. The Business Day article suggested that Zuma had caved in toContinue reading “Farewell to Peter Mayibuye*”
Nic Borain 