Some of the things we think we know about revolts and revolutions – but that do not always apply: Where there are adequate elective processes dissatisfied people believe they can influence outcomes through voting and therefore are unlikely to make the sacrifices required of a revolution. Revolts are generally lead and organised by the middleContinue reading “The forces for and against a South African revolt”
Category Archives: Alliance Politics
The great South African soapie
Has anything changed? The guy in the middle is the ANC and his lying entreaties are addressed to Cosatu and the SACP while his real passion – and the furtive fumbling in the dark – are with business, global and domestic. I commissioned that cartoon in 1999 and Cathy Quickfall did a better job thanContinue reading “The great South African soapie”
If this is the New Growth Path what’s the Old Growth Path?
This is the second of three articles about the New Growth Path (NGP) Framework released last week by the Ministry of Economic Development. One of the architects (I must assume) of the NGP, Neva Makgetla (an economist long associated with Cosatu and now deputy director general in the Department of Economic Development) recently examined bothContinue reading “If this is the New Growth Path what’s the Old Growth Path?”
New Growth Path Framework bloodline
This is the first of three articles that look at the political and policy bloodline of the New Growth Path and the main criticisms that have emerged about the policy in the public domain over the last few days. This first post is a summary – using quotes and paraphrasing – of Ruling Alliance statementsContinue reading “New Growth Path Framework bloodline”
Who is Cronin’s enemy?
Jeremy Cronin’s criticism of Cosatu’s recent hosting of a “Civil Society Conference” is impossible to understand without understanding his – and the SACP’s – assumptions about the world and South Africa in November 2010. Cronin’s premise is that “an enemy” is attempting to make the public debate about the future of South Africa focus onContinue reading “Who is Cronin’s enemy?”
Cronin warns Cosatu: if you lie down with dogs expect to get fleas
Umsebenzi Online has just (yesterday) published a stern warning to Cosatu from SACP deputy secretary general Jeremy Cronin about the trade union federation’s recent “Civil Society Conference”. Cronin’s “intervention” (his word) is torn between warning: that the conference plays into the hands of “anti-transformation”, “anti-majoritarian” “right-wing liberals” and the fact that leading members of Cosatu’sContinue reading “Cronin warns Cosatu: if you lie down with dogs expect to get fleas”
Pictures of a possible future
I occasionally publish slides that I have used for clients as part of my attempt to examine political and investment risks to them. Below are 3 from a presentation I delivered soon after the ANC NGC. See if you can identify all the people concerned – a sort of politics general knowledge test ( youContinue reading “Pictures of a possible future”
Suddenly it’s all sweetness and light?
It’s been a difficult week, and I started the following post on Monday soon after hearing the general tone of the press and analysts response to the cabinet reshuffle. I wanted to publish while the accolades for Jacob Zuma were still glowing and, unfortunately for both the President and me, the corrective doubts and scepticismContinue reading “Suddenly it’s all sweetness and light?”
Looking backwards and going forwards
I came across a long research note that I wrote in early 2007 exploring the impending succession process in the ANC to culminate at the Polokwane conference 7 months later. So I was writing before the June 2007 National General Council during which Jacob Zuma’s resignation/suspension as ANC deputy president was overturned from the floorContinue reading “Looking backwards and going forwards”
Mantashe holds the line
Single heroes who defend narrow approaches to the precious citadel against massed ranks of Orcs, barbarians or Persians are much revered in mythology. I would like to nominate Gwede Mantashe to stand briefly amongst their legendary ranks. He stood up yesterday in front of the South African Democratic Teachers Union and said (as quoted inContinue reading “Mantashe holds the line”
Stalking Horses at the NGC
I have been sickly and trying to pay the bills. All my ‘paid for’ commentary on the NGC is done and I can finally get back to home ground where I feel more comfortable to make some wild accusations – and I will, finally, be more explicit in this post about who I think theContinue reading “Stalking Horses at the NGC”
If you’re winning and you know it clap your hands, clap your hands
Reading Stephen Grootes’ tweets this morning while Jacob Zuma was delivering the Political Report at the ANC NGC was a little like listening to soccer on the radio – you had to rely on the noise level to guess at what was happening. Grootes’ excellent commentary during the presidential address gave lots of attention toContinue reading “If you’re winning and you know it clap your hands, clap your hands”
Zuma recalled? I just can’t see it …
I want to discuss this business of commentators predicting that Zuma will be recalled before he has finished his initial term – but first a brief advertisement. This blog was set up, in part, to generate paid work for myself. One of the things that I do for a living is talk to (or writeContinue reading “Zuma recalled? I just can’t see it …”
The end of the ruling alliance
Commentators and politicians are outdoing themselves announcing either the end or the permanence of the ANC/SACP/Cosatu alliance. This is Jacob Zuma on the subject – at the Kwazulu-Natal ANC General Council on Friday: I have read so many alliance obituaries. If leaders express their views, people think that we are fighting … The alliance willContinue reading “The end of the ruling alliance”
The resurrection of Julius Malema
Chasing my tail trying to get the bills paid. But two important things not to lose sight of: Firstly, Julius is back. The weekend National General Council of the ANC Youth League was a personal triumph for him and he emerges from Gallagher Estate with his star, once again, steadily on the rise. In theContinue reading “The resurrection of Julius Malema”
Nic Borain 