On having agency

The Activist Developmental State is an idea I feel deeply ambivalent about. The picture below of Shanghai in the 1990s and then again last year is from a blog by Roger Pielke, Jr, professor of environment studies at the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research at the University of Colorado. (Thanks to Anthony forContinue reading “On having agency”

Cosatu, Zuma and the New Growth Path

Busy, busy … and everything is slower; the brain and hands struggle with what they did with alacrity before the December holiday. Anyway … It is becoming clear that South African Investment Risk is going to be all about the New Growth Path (NGP) this year. So picking up from where I left off fromContinue reading “Cosatu, Zuma and the New Growth Path”

The great South African soapie

Has anything changed? The guy in the middle is the ANC and his lying entreaties are addressed to Cosatu and the SACP while his real passion – and the furtive fumbling in the dark – are with business, global and domestic. I commissioned that cartoon in 1999 and Cathy Quickfall did a better job thanContinue reading “The great South African soapie”

Can you hear the drums?

Those who know me would expect me to profess that I would rather eat broken glass than say anything sentimental and upbeat for the sake of Christmas cheer. They would also know that I often fail: that a sort of “jolly hockey-sticks” optimism can sometimes creep into my disposition, that the studiously steely eyes oftenContinue reading “Can you hear the drums?”

If this is the New Growth Path what’s the Old Growth Path?

This is the second of three articles about the New Growth Path (NGP) Framework released last week by the Ministry of Economic Development. One of the architects (I must assume) of the NGP, Neva Makgetla  (an economist long associated with Cosatu and now deputy director general in the Department of Economic Development) recently examined bothContinue reading “If this is the New Growth Path what’s the Old Growth Path?”

New Growth Path Framework bloodline

This is the first of three articles that look at the political and policy bloodline of the New Growth Path and the main criticisms that have emerged about the policy in the public domain over the last few days. This first post is a summary – using quotes and paraphrasing – of Ruling Alliance statementsContinue reading “New Growth Path Framework bloodline”

Who is Cronin’s enemy?

Jeremy Cronin’s criticism of Cosatu’s  recent hosting of a “Civil Society Conference” is impossible to understand without understanding his – and the SACP’s – assumptions about the world and South Africa in November 2010. Cronin’s premise is that “an enemy” is attempting to make the public debate about the future of South Africa focus onContinue reading “Who is Cronin’s enemy?”

Cronin warns Cosatu: if you lie down with dogs expect to get fleas

Umsebenzi Online has just (yesterday) published a stern warning to Cosatu from SACP deputy secretary general Jeremy Cronin about the trade union federation’s recent “Civil Society Conference”. Cronin’s “intervention” (his word) is torn between warning: that the conference plays into the hands of “anti-transformation”, “anti-majoritarian” “right-wing liberals” and the fact that leading members of Cosatu’sContinue reading “Cronin warns Cosatu: if you lie down with dogs expect to get fleas”

Pictures of a possible future

I occasionally publish slides that I have used for clients as part of my attempt to examine political and investment risks to them. Below are 3 from a presentation I delivered soon after the ANC NGC. See if you can identify all the people concerned – a sort of politics general knowledge test ( youContinue reading “Pictures of a possible future”

Suddenly it’s all sweetness and light?

It’s been a difficult week, and I started the following post on Monday soon after hearing the general tone of the press and analysts response to the cabinet reshuffle. I wanted to publish while the accolades for Jacob Zuma were still glowing and, unfortunately for both the President and me, the corrective doubts and scepticismContinue reading “Suddenly it’s all sweetness and light?”

… celebrity a razor in the body …*

My sister was a famous model and in that capacity was invited to judge the Miss World competition at Sun City in 1995. She asked me to accompany her as her official partner for a whole weekend of glitzy celebration and judging.                          Continue reading “… celebrity a razor in the body …*”

Winning, losing and declaring a truce in the battle of ideas

Jacob Zuma’s decision to meet with Gareth Cliff and Woolworths’ decision to put Lig, Juig, Joy and Lééf back on the shelves makes me wonder about the rules of engagement in the battle of ideas in the age of celebrity and social media. In the 1980’s those of us connected to the ANC in theContinue reading “Winning, losing and declaring a truce in the battle of ideas”

Looking backwards and going forwards

I came across a long research note that I wrote in early 2007 exploring the impending succession process in the ANC to culminate at the Polokwane conference 7 months later. So I was writing before the June 2007  National General Council during which Jacob Zuma’s resignation/suspension as ANC deputy president was overturned from the floorContinue reading “Looking backwards and going forwards”

Is the ANC really beyond redemption?

It is difficult not to imagine the tearing of some deep and important ligament in our body politic in the tone and content of this debate that starts in The Times, ostensibly between Pallo Jordan and Justice Malala and ostensibly about media freedom. The battle is joined – and complicated – by the ANC inContinue reading “Is the ANC really beyond redemption?”

Mantashe holds the line

Single heroes who defend narrow approaches to the precious citadel against massed ranks of Orcs, barbarians or Persians are much revered in mythology. I would like to nominate Gwede Mantashe to stand briefly amongst their legendary ranks. He stood up yesterday in front of the South African Democratic Teachers Union and said (as quoted inContinue reading “Mantashe holds the line”